EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 17

WHEREAS, on March 13, 2020, a state of emergency was declared in St. Louis County relating to the immediate and significant risk posted to the health, safety, wellbeing of the people of St. Louis County that is presented by COVID-19;

WHEREAS, in a short period of time, COVID-19 has rapidly spread, causing sickness and death of St. Louis County residents, necessitating more significant protocols;

WHEREAS, on March 21, 2020, I signed Executive Order 15 to place restrictions on activities in order to limit the spread of COVID-19 and the Department of Public Health subsequently issued stay at home orders consistent therewith;

WHEREAS, continuation of these additional measures is necessary for the preservation of the public health and safety throughout St. Louis County; and

WHEREAS, the Director of the Department of Public Health and other public health experts have recommended that these additional measures be extended and that they will continue to save lives;

Let's look at the data from 8/23, stlcorona.com.

The estimated population in St. Louis County on July 1, 2019 was 994,205.  Since the hypocrats only look at the confirmed cases when they are reporting and making decisions, we can do the same.  

Let's look at the percentage of the population that have been confirmed as having the cases.  Cumulative cases, 17,721 divided by the total population, 994,205 is 0.0178.  This means that only 1.78 percent of the population have had the virus.  

If 12,547 cases have been released from isolation, we can assume they all survived.  So, let's see how many cases are actually confirmed at this time 17,721 minus 12,547 yields 5,174 "current confirmed cases" in St. Louis County.  Let's compare that number, 5,174, with the total population of Stl county, 994,205.  This yields a quotient of 0.0052 or 0.52% of the population have a confirmed case of Corona.  

If we compute the case fatality rate using the data from stlcorona.com, we get 0.0402 or 4%.  If we recall that the CDC estimates that we are only finding 10% of the cases, then Stl county would have about 177,721 cases.  This results in a case-fatality rate of 0.004 or 0.4% for the county.

So, is this statement really true? 

WHEREAS, in a short period of time, COVID-19 has rapidly spread, causing sickness and death of St. Louis County residents, necessitating more significant protocols;

It is time to end the state of emergency.